The Socialist Revival in Europe

‘Hollande is our man’, ‘the left revival starts in France’, ‘now is our time’. Sound familiar? It is if you have been following political developments on the continent. Hollande has beaten Sarkozy and there will almost certainly be a socialist president of France which will spark a turn of fortunes in social democratic parties across the continent. With Hollande, things will be different.

Or so one reads; the reality is very different and celebrations are too preliminary. Just because something is cliché does not make it false; a week is a long time in politics. In 2010 the Liberal Democrats were scoring over 30% in the polls two weeks before the election, yet won just half of that.

There is still two weeks until the next round, and the fortunes of Hollande depend upon factors out of his control like media perception. It also depends on whether he campaign strategy; if he attacks Sarkozy or if he focuses on policy and then how that message is received. Even then, one should never really be surprised at French politics; despite the centre right’s association with the openly corrupt Jacques Chirac and Villepin they still won the presidency. I expect Hollande to win, but would not be surprised if he didn’t. But even if he did win, how much would change and would it really spark a revival in Europe?

To put things into perspective, out of 27 EU countries only four have a social democratic government. Would a PS victory really mean much? In terms of French domestic politics that depends on the much overlooked parliamentary elections in June. Politics has a bad habit of focussing on one individual; when someone thinks of French politics they think of Sarkozy, German politics is all about Merkel, Obama has total control over the USA political scene – the reality, as we know, is very different. The centre right currently have 320 seats (plus 23 from the New Right) and the left has 204 seats (plus 24 from the extreme left). It is a big ask.

Even in a wider context, what would Hollande as president and a PS majority in parliament mean? Hollande talks the talk, and wants to renegotiate the Eurozone deal. But how much of that deal was actually decided by democratic government and how much forced by the markets and IMF? How much control do politicians have over economic affairs? If the past four years are any indication then not much. Europe is at the mercy of the financial markets – and the only way out is a unified European response; no country can go it alone.

This requires all socialist and social democratic parties to work together and have a common vision with shared values; the fundamental questions need answers. Of course socialism looks different in France than in Britain or Slovakia, just as socialism looks different in urban and rural areas – there is not one absolute answer. But there are shared European values and aims.

Social democratic parties are still in a hangover from Third Way politics and are still unsure in their beliefs and aims, but it is no surprise that in Western Europe France is the first to recover as they were the first to embrace Third Way politics under Mitterrand. Social democratic parties, including the PS, still face fundamental questions; what does it mean to be socialist or social democratic, what are our aims, what kind of society do we want and how do we get there? Hollande cannot answer such questions on his own.

Something else that should be pointed out is that the social democratic revival, if there has been one, started before Hollande; Robert Fico had an amazing victory in Slovakia, a leftist party topped the poll in Slovenia, Martin Schulz was elected president of the European parliament in 2012 and let’s not forget about Denmark in September 2011. Yet the fortunes of social democracy in Europe have not changed even with the Danish social democrats holding the rotating EU presidency. So why is Hollande “our man”? Because he has the biggest mandate.

There is a false perception that France and Germany run the show in Europe, for that reason many tout Germany 2013 as the key to Europe’s soul, and again many on the left have already assumed a social democratic win. Once again, this is misguided; German politics is all about compromise and coalition and the Social Democrats (SDP) are not surging in the polls but are caught in an existential crisis. Merkel looks likely to win in 2013, with the balance of power being the Greens or, as one poll put it, the Pirate Party. But again, it should be pointed that economic policy is not made by politicians but by the markets.

Even before Germany, there is a likely election in the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Slovenia, and elections in Romania, Italy and Greece. The Netherlands is more important than France; it is not entrenched in two party politics and the prime minister is not as unpopular as Sarkozy but it is a genuine election between Christian Democracy (Verhagen), de-regulation fiscal neo-liberalism (Rutte), anti-immigration populism (Wilders) and a revived social democracy. Further, no party in the Netherlands is mired in corruption like in Slovakia and Croatia, the ruling party has not been in government for too long like Denmark, the PM is not vilified like France and their politics is not totally mad like Italy. It is a genuine election of values rather than an election of personalities like France. The result in France would not show a revival in social democratic values, but the Netherlands would.

Where next for social democracy? Not Germany, not even the Netherlands, but to the streets. The best way to get social democratic values out there is to practise them. We cannot wait and hope for a messiah like many in the USA did with Obama; he couldn’t make changes he wanted to due to outside frustration beyond his control. Social democracy is not about one man, whether that is a continental figure like Hollande or even a national figure like Miliband; it is about the hundreds of CLPs, the thousands of branches and the tens of thousands of volunteers who dream of a fair society. Any kind of socialist revival needs to come from the people; we need a unified continental vision, visions for each state, a plan and a group of people, both politicians and regular people, to carry them out. Unless socialism looks at itself hard and practises what it preaches, then this election will mean nothing.

Picture; Handelszeitung, 18/4/2012, Peter Schrank