A Blue Dawn Over Europe

A curious phenomenon has happened in the EU states. Of the 8 parliamentary elections in 2010, all were won by conservatives. On top of that, only 6 out of 27 states in the EU are governed by socialists or social democrats. How and why did this happen? Is this the end of socialism in Europe? Where do we go from here?

European Parliamentary elections 2009 - The shape of things to come?

Bit of housekeeping; 'conservative' parties across the EU are only ‘conservative’ relative to their respective political atmosphere. The Toryism of the British conservatives does not resemble the conservatism of the ‘Moderate Party’ in Sweden. Traditionalists in Poland, who are no less than mad and corrupt, are very different to the neo-liberals of the Netherlands, yet both are “conservative” relative to their political scenes. (for more on Conservatism, albeit American, I recommend Adam Wolfson 'Conservatives and Neo-Conservatives' in 'Neo-Conservatism' by Irwing Stelzer)

A quick rundown of the parliamentary elections in the EU in 2010; Hungary, Czech Republic, Britain (I’m sure we don’t need any reminding), Sweden, Slovakia, Netherlands, Belgium and Latvia.

What is remarkable is how in all those elections the 'conservatives' won. Or they at least ended up forming a government if they did not top the election. This was whether they were challenging as in Britain, or incumbent as in Sweden and Latvia. Even in the Netherlands public dissatisfaction at the Christian Democrat government led the way for fiscal conservatives rather than social democrats, albeit narrowly. No matter what the circumstance, the blues won.

It is not just that conservatives have had a sweep. 2009 saw the elimination of the socialists in Germany, the socialists in Hungary gained 30% less votes than just four years prior, the socialists in Poland are not a main party and in Sweden they lost two elections in a row for the first time ever. Mark Rutte is the first fiscal conservative in the Netherlands in nearly 90 years. Not only did conservatives win, but the social democrats comprehensively lost in a lot of places. In other places socialism is a non-entity; Latvia has never had a socialist government since independence, Berlusconi in Italy has more chance of being kicked out by his coalition partners than by socialists, and French socialists cannot buy a national victory. The problem lies beyond election results; there is a lack of social belief in reds across the continent. There is a real problem for socialism across the EU.

Perhaps equally worrying is that out of the six states with a socialist government, three are Spain, Portugal and Greece. Another is Cyprus which is governed by the “Progressive Party of Working People”, or communists (just look at their badge), the fifth is Austria which governs in a coalition with the ‘blue’ party and the sixth is Slovenia, the second smallest state in the EU, only behind Luxembourg, whose political scene has seen socialists in government for just four years since 1945. So the present situation is not a promising advert for European socialism.

Why has this happened? Has socialism failed in the land of the welfare states? Not at all, in fact if anything it is economic “conservatism” (which in reality is “classic liberalism” – don’t you just love ideological labels) which has failed to deliver, and socialist governments have been taking the flak. Socialism has only been at fault in Europe where the states have spent beyond their means leading to irresponsible lending and the second sin of household economics; never get into debt. The problem in Greece was not socialism, but the Olympics and years of poor economic management from both parties. In Ireland the problem was the fiscal bubble and toxic loans with some more economic irresponsibility, not socialism. Their messes were caused by banks and corporations. The lesson from the ordeal is surely the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust; so control the boom, manage the bust (and kick out speculation). In the Eurozone, it was lack of union and lack of solidarity that has caused their economic plight rather than an inherent fault in one currency. It seems so obvious now in retrospect; if one shares currency then one needs to work together. Another key aspect often overlooked is the long term de-industrialisation of Europe; service based economies are not stable. Even on a parochial level, there is one common complaint aimed towards the "peoples' parties", and I’m sure we've all heard this on the doorstep, “You’re never there for us.” Not only have we got to unite on the continent to fix our problems, we have to all get back on the streets and talk with people. Socialism is about people, first and foremost (a social movement before a party). There has been a disconnect; bluntly this needs to be amended. We need to cleanse politics of incompetence, corruption and backstabbing and rebuild trust in politics by getting back to the people. That’s not just here in Britain, but everywhere.

Socialism has not failed, though some red parties do need a good kicking (Hungary), but socialism in Europe needs to set its priorities and have clarity. What is needed is not the traditional internationalism of ye olde socialists (workers of the world unite!) or globalism of neo-liberals (bankers of the world unite!), but a continental solution (Europe unite!). Each state is different and faces its own problems, but the states can help each other out by encouraging inter-continental trade and closer union. Socialism in EU states has countless success stories, and doubtless there will be many more. But the lack of European solidarity is what is hindering the European movement. Through the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone (sound familiar?), that applies particularly to European states. Socialism in the continent has not failed, but it needs more clarity, to set its priorities, to go back to the people, redefine itself and, most importantly, solidarity.

Solidarity. A powerful word that has broken walls and overthrown dictators, and a word I firmly believe will shape and define the future of Europe. Socialist parties need solidarity, not centrism. Together, we can build a brighter and stronger Europe. A Europe that is self-determining, self-reliant and self-sufficient, a Europe determined by European thought and belief rather than America-centric capitalist thought. A Europe that puts people before profit, rights before riches, and has employment and welfare at its core. It is the social democratic parties of Europe, working together and in union, that will bring this Europe. They have not been wiped out, and as long as they keep believing and fighting, they never will be.

Rather, what happened in 2010 was not a ‘sweep’ or a mass ideological change in the people of Europe. Conservative parties won for different reasons; in Sweden the incumbent Reinfeldt is popular and did a good job, in Hungary the socialists were tragically incompetent, hopelessly corrupt and were even recorded calling themselves useless, whereas in Britain the Labour party came to the end of its cycle after thirteen years – politics works in swings and roundabouts, except apparently in Luxembourg. In Slovakia the socialists actually gained 5% and had more than double the votes of the second placed party, they only lost because four other parties formed a coalition of losers. A similar thing happened in the Czech Republic with the social democrats narrowly winning the election yet three other parties forming the government. No doubt such a move in Britain would have made Nick Robinson foam at the mouth and literally explode. There was no connecting factor in voting patterns throughout Europe; the only common factor was the economic situation and even then incumbents were retained in office (Sweden and Latvia) and solutions to it differed; Britain’s Conservatives want quick and savage cuts, Sweden's are gentler. A British solution is to raise tuition fees and VAT, but no such measures are true of Irish or Slovak conservatives. Estonia’s solution is to join the Eurozone, with the crisis spurring it on to enhance business and trade. Victory for conservative parties in 2010 does not mark an ideological change in Europe; there were lots of different and unconnected reasons why they swept into office, continent wide.

There is some consolation for socialists from 2010; the Austrian presidential election was won by a socialist with a whopping 79%. Granted, he ran against the Austrian equivalent of Nick Griffin in a skirt (Barbara Rosenkranz, look her up for a laugh) and the main conservative party did not field a candidate, but a win is a win. The Czech senate election saw social democrats gain and the blues of all shades lose seats, the caveat being that it was only one third of the senate in the election, and the senate is largely second fiddle. Social democratic parties are further bolstered by positive local elections in France, Greece and Britain (+414 councillors and +14 councils, the news did not report), which still show great support.

Furthermore, the signs are looking good. The Labour Party in Ireland look set to gain from the collapse of Fianna Fail, meanwhile the Partie Socialiste (France) are in unfamiliar territory of positive polls. Denmark looks likely to be heading back for a socialist government. Even here in Britain the Labour party stormed the local elections, not to mention Labour’s swing in the polls reaching up to the heights of 43% (Polls are hilariously unreliable and lead public opinion more than they show it, but it’s still better than the 25% depths of a year prior). And despite losing, reds in Sweden, Belgium and the Netherlands were not wiped out. Things are going to get better for the reds in 2011.

This may sound like a quick get out of an answer, but this ‘conservative sweep’ was just coincidence. Socialism is not dead in Europe, and as long as there is the welfare state, the ideas of equality, fairness, liberty and other European values, we will never succumb to the Americanised ideology of the glorified individual or blind market trust with even blinder government mistrust. The EU is not united enough for the results to be connected; what happens in Lithuania has little apparent consequence in Ireland. This sweep in 2010 is simply a coincidence, a curious phenomenon and nothing more. It's a bleak picture, but 2010 is not “the year the conservatives won” or “the year socialism died”, it does not mark the beginning or the end of any European movement. Instead it is simply a year where several unrelated but comparable parties won. Nothing more.

Now stop panicking.