The Importance of Oldham

And now for the anti-climactic calm after the excitement...
 

In case your inbox has not been inundated with requests to go campaigning in Oldham and you had managed to get away from the media (please do tell me how), there has been a by-election which Labour won.

Labour’s victory and the margin of it is being taken as a 'clear message' to the government against VAT and cuts, a poll against the coalition government’s policies, the first nail in the coffin. Well, unfortunately not. As great as it is to win the election, let’s not get carried away. This result does not mark the beginning of the end, nor is it indicative of wider public resentment. What does this result really mean? Honestly, very little.

Labour’s share went up by 10%. Great! But look at the numbers and Labour’s vote only increased by 500 votes. Furthermore there was ‘only’ a decrease of 3000 for the Liberal Democrats, hardly reflective of the 20% they lost in opinion polls and scarcely the collapse we all anticipated. Even though this was such a closely fought and tightly ‘won’ – using the word loosely – seat in May, the majority now is pretty much the same as it was in 2005 and 1997. It is easy to get carried away with the victory, but it was not as decisive or momentous as some are making it out to be, and gloating certainly is not in order. The result shows neither a collapse for the Liberal Democrats, nor a return to Labour of Liberal Democrat voters.

An even harsher reality for Labour is that the government won more votes than Labour; the combined vote for the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives was 15,641 while Labour won 14,718. Scarcely a “clear message” against VAT rises or cuts, and even less a great accolade for Labour or Ed. It would be interesting to speculate what the result would have been under an AV system; we may not be gloating so much. Clearly there is much work Labour needs to do, both in Oldham and nationwide. A continuous campaign is needed, as much work in the next four to five years as there was in the last week.

We could cautiously compare this to the by-election in Norwich North in 2009. In that by-election Labour lost 26.7%. That by-election meant something. That was a humiliation for Labour and a compelling victory for the Conservatives. That was a 'clear message' to the Labour government (it was at the time of the expenses scandal, which although a cross bench incident, Labour took the flak for). By comparison, the results of this by-election and future Barnsley by-election mean little. I am not trying to belittle or sour a victory, but this is not huge. Or as Andy Burnham put it; “it would be wrong to read too much into it.” (Perhaps he noticed that the combined government vote exceeded Labour’s).

Baroness Warsi presented three arguments on the BBC for the Conservative vote-share, which saw its vote halved, and all were poor. First she claimed low turnout. That would surely not affect the Conservative vote to a greater extent than the Labour vote? Second, “it was a by-election”, this reason makes no sense; do Conservatives not campaign in by-elections? Have they no money? Being hit by their own policies? Done the decent thing and donated their campaign chest to fund hospitals or private investment? The third argument was that Labour held the seat since its creation in 1997, which is a fair point as it’s not a traditional Conservative seat. However the Conservatives still got 11,773 votes in May and this excuse does not mean they should not have campaigned. It is so obvious that the Conservatives did not put much into the campaign, but what it does highlight is a dilemma they faced which I shall go into later.

Some good news is that the BNP vote went down by 1000, which is unusual as one would have expected more given the circumstances. Still, no complaints. Especially as they won over 5000 votes in 2001 and over 2000 votes in 2005 and 2010. One worry is the unfortunate and inconvenient fact that the core BNP vote; working class white men, are or were core Labour voters. The worry being that if it was simply that they voted Labour, then that could suggest the 500 more votes Labour won came from the BNP and not from Liberal Democrat voters. Of course, it’s impossible to know given the secret ballot. All that really matters is that the BNP vote went down, something we can all agree is good news for Oldham.

Lets counter that good news with some bad; the turnout was below 50% (at 48%), down 13.1% or 10,000 votes. 10,000 voters who voted in May decided not to vote this time. That is more people than any of us have spoken to campaigning put together. Given the circumstances and the disgrace of Phil Woolas, this is not totally surprising, but it is still worrying. By-elections have the tendency of mysteriously low turnout; it could be that local people are sick of the media spotlight or it could be ‘democratic fatigue’ – maybe twice within a year is too much for some people. People have every right not to vote, but as politicians it is our task to try and push turnout up and increase participation. It is my belief that the Labour party is the vehicle for deliberative democracy and that we should be pursuing deliberation – direct democracy is too chaotic and populist, representative democracy is too distant and aloof. As for turnout, I still do not think it necessary to implement compulsory voting, but I do support the idea of having a 'None of the above' option on the box. Low turnout is indicative of low trust in politics in general, the primary task of Labour now should be to rebuild that trust and reconnect with people. To fight negative and dirty politics while also reconnecting with the people. If we rebuild trust, turnout will go up and democracy is saved – hurrah!

There are two important signs we should take from this by-election; the potential tactics of the other parties and possibly a tide against negative politics. This by-election shows a dilemma for the coalition government. The Conservatives, no matter what Warsi says (what is her problem?), did not show up to win but likewise the Liberal Democrats were in an unusual position of defence and were unable to pick up Labour voters. Neither party were able to criticise each other, but they also could not support each other – hopefully this will lead them to more positive campaigning. But hope springs eternal.

However, there is another dilemma seen in this by-election, one for Labour. Due to the secret ballot this is speculative, but it is plausible that the reason the Conservative vote dropped by 7000 is due to them switching their vote to the Liberal Democrats, tactical voting to oust Labour. Now in Labour-Liberal Democrat contested seats, Conservative voters have no qualms about voting Liberal Democrat and that could prove decisive.

The real significance of the by-election comes from the nature of the recall; negative campaigning backfiring. Dirty politics does not pay and is not welcome; this should be the message for all politicians. If we want to truly reform politics, truly change the attitudes to politics, we must change the attitude of politics, we must oust and eliminate all negative politics – then, and only then, will politicians be trusted again. So, good on Labour for kicking Woolas out, and hopefully more to come from all parties. That is not the kind of politics we should be advocating or even allowing to exist. More control against negative politics and more effort by politicians to rebuild its reputation is imperative; kick out the rot and set up guidelines for political etiquette.

A victory? Yes, by all means; Labour won the seat. But we should not read too much into it or exaggerate it. It is not a hammer blow to the government nor a show of praise for Labour. There are lessons to learn from this; the main one being to move away from negative politics, an endeavour very close to me (it is the main reason I got involved in politics in the first place). There is still much work for Labour to do, and a change away from negative politics should be central to the renewal of the party and of parliament; not only can politics be different but it will be different. A positive attitude is part of the “Eight P program” (Positive, Populist, Pragmatic, Principles, Pluralism, Positivism, Personalism, Praxia). Although it’s great that Labour won, tougher tests await – the next one Barnsley Central. Which begs the question; why can’t there be a by-election in the Lake District or somewhere nice?

[Note:- no offence to anyone from Barnsley – I have never been, it might be a lovely place for all I know]